Haldimand--Norfolk

With the Stephen Harper-led Conservative Party in a tailspin, he and his supporters are pulling out all the stops to paint a Liberal and NDP coalition with the Bloc Quebecois as a deal with the devil that will "destroy Canada."

The problem for Stephen Harper in this whole smear campaign is that in 2004 Harper proposed to the Governor General a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois.

The Globe and Mail has an excerpt from a 2004 letter from Stephen Harper to the Governor General in which he states:

"We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority."

Now at the time, the Liberals had 135 seats, the Conservative Party had 99 seats, the Bloc Quebecois had 54 seats and the NDP had 19 seats.

So when Harper said that "the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority," that included the Bloc Quebecois. He could not have formed a minority coalition government without the 54 Bloc Quebecois seats.

There's one word for Stephen Harper's willingness to make the devil of who he and his party once saw as an ally: hypocrisy.

A lot of you know that I spend most of my days working on US politics in the areas of climate change and energy policy.

In the US political-sphere, claims of communist plots, nazi propaganda and socialism are sadly all too familiar. In Canada we rarely see such inflamed political hubris and thank goodness for that.

Creating fear and hate through the use of overstated PR spin and rhetoric is something that President-elect Barack Obama avoided and many times fought against in the recent US election. Many would say it was Obama's unwillingness to "go there" that won him the presidency.

Unfortunately, Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party are taking over from where Obama refused to go and their most recent press release is filled with the kind of divisive language and fear-mongering that even Americans find unappealing.

Here's some of the more choice quotes:

Jack Layton and the NDP who once again peddled and outdated socialist ideology..."

"The socialist NDP..."

"...they [the BQ] continue to destroy Canada."

"... a massive new carbon tax that would strangle Canada’s economy."

"... an illegitimate regime without any mandate to govern."

And from a recent letter to supporters:

"the Liberals want to seize power with only an endorsement from only the socialists and the separatists."

I know things are heated. But this type of talk only leads to hate.

Today, Harper and the Conservatives are saying that "Canadians rendered a clear judgment in the Federal Election."

Harper continues to try and spin his way into somehow claiming that he and his party won the last election with the will of Canadians. And his main problem has been that he is unwilling to govern in a way that is sensitive to the fact that no matter how you spin the results of the last election, he and his party were not chosen to rule this country by the vast majority of Canadian voters.

In a news release out this afternoon the Conservatives state that:

"Canadians passed judgment on Stephen Harper when they awarded the Conservative Party a strengthened mandate."

Nope, sorry Harper, but no matter how you slice the pie, you and your party did now receive a "strengthened mandate." In fact, the vast majority of Canadians - 62% to be exact - DID NOT vote for you and your party.

And to drive home the point - 165,275 less Canadians voted for you and your party in the this election compared to the previous one held in 2006.

Here's the breakdown:

There was a total of 13,675,146 votes cast in the last election with 5,208,796 going to Harper and the Conservative Party - that's 38% of the vote.

Last time I checked 38% is not a majority - not even close. Definitely doesn't represent the will of the majority of voters.

The Liberals got 3,633,185 votes, the Bloc Quebecois got 1,379,991, the NDP got 2,515,561 and the Green Party came in at 937,613. This makes up the total of the 62% that did not vote for Harper.

Now if I was spin-doctoring for Harper, I would argue off the top that the Green Party numbers should not be included because they are not part of the coalition that is being proposed by the Libs, NDP and the BQ.

Take out the Green Party votes from the last election and you're at 7,528,737 votes going to the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals. Harper and the Conservatives can argue (with my fancy spin doctoring) that they received 40% of the vote when compared to the vote totals of the three other parties represented in Parliament.

Still kind of desperate. Definitely still not the majority and the will of the nation.

Okay let's go Karl Rove on the spin-doctoring.

What about if you take out the Green Party and then spin the numbers again claiming that the Bloc Quebecois numbers don't count because they don't represent "Canadian" votes, but "separatist" votes (I know this sounds desperate, but Harper appears desperate at this point, and they're pretty much saying it already).

Okay, let's drop off the BQ's 1.37 million votes and the Green Party's 937,613 votes.

Now we have a total votes cast in the election of 11,675,146 with the Conservatives now getting 45.8% of the vote and the combined Liberals and NDP getting the remaining 54.2%.

Still not a majority with the BQ and the Green Party taken out of the picture.

Sorry, Stephen, but no matter how hard you spin it, you were not given a "mandate" by the majority of Canadians, so please stop talking and ruling the country like you did.

Here's the numbers from the last election and from the 2006 federal election if you want to crunch the numbers yourself.

Looks like the 3 opposition parties have really upped the ante today, releasing a very strong statement that indicates like never before that they are not willing to back down.

A joint release with an accompanying "Open Letter to Canadians" (attached) was issued just minutes ago by the Bloc Quebecois, NDP and Liberal parties states that:

Date: December 1, 2008

For Release: Immediate

Party leaders lose confidence in Conservative government

OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, together with New Democrat Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, today issued an open letter to all Canadians indicating their loss of confidence in the Conservative government to manage the current economic crisis.

“Since the recent federal election, it has become clear that the government headed by Prime Minister Stephen Harper has no plan, no competence and, no will to effectively address this crisis,” the letter states.

“Therefore, the majority of Parliament has lost confidence in Mr. Harper’s government, and is resolved to form a new government that will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address these critical economic times.”

The leaders point out that the majority of Canadians voted for their parties in the last election - held less than two months ago - and request that the Governor General use her constitutional authority to call on Mr. Dion as Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new government that will be supported by all opposition parties.

Attached are copies of the news release and the Open Letter in both French and English.

We thought we were going to get a bit of a breather, but it looks like the fight is on.

Stephen Harper is running scared. Today, the Bloc, NDP and Liberal Parties have indicated they are willing to form a coalition government and bring down the Conservatives.

You can read all about it here: Stephen Harper Running Scared

Stephen Harper is acting like he speaks for the majority of Canadians. Today he said:

"...the opposition has been working on a backroom deal to overturn the results of the last election without seeking the consent of voters. They want to take power, not earn it."

But Stephen Harper does not have the consent of the majority of Canadians and he did not earn it.

62 percent of us did not vote for this government.

We are faced with dual crises in the economy and the environment. What is Stephen Harper's response? On the economy, nothing. On the environment, embarrassing.

It's up to you now. The opportunity is here. We need to create a groundswell for a coalition government right now. This week. Our contacts in Ottawa are telling us we need a tidal wave of Canadians to contact their Members of Parliament. NDP, Bloc and Liberal MPs need to hear Canadians support a coalition government.

Your voice can be heard in two clicks - go to the website below, type in our postal code and email or phone your MP right now:

Contact your MP.

There are other things you can do. We've started a Facebook group to help hammer home the message. Join now. Invite your friends.

The Vote for Environment team is going to fight hard to see this coalition government happen. It is our best opportunity and we're in this to win.

We need your donation to help our online initiative. You can go here to donate right now.

Thank you.

We are pleased to provide this handy printable list for election day. It lists the key swing ridings where vote splitting is most likely to result in the election of a Conservative. The data shows the party that is most likely to defeat the conservative in each swing riding and the predicted margin between first and second place. It is sorted to highlight places where the 3rd and 4th party vote is significant.

This release just went out from 3 of Canada's most senior climate change scientists.

You can click here to download a comprehensive spreadsheet (PDF)of all the ridings where the Green vote can make a difference.

VICTORIA – Three senior Canadian members of the 2007 Nobel Prize
winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are calling
on Elizabeth May to lead Greens to make the difference in more than 50
close ridings where the Conservatives are set to win with a fraction
of the expected Green Party vote. The leading Canadian climate
scientists making the call are Dr. Andrew Weaver from the University
of Victoria, Dr. William Peltier from the University of Toronto and
Dr. John Stone from Carleton University.

Riding projections on VoteForEnvironment.ca and seat models from
various polling companies show that in the so-called 519 and 905
regions, and across southern BC the Green Party vote is many times
greater than the Conservative margin of victory.

"We face a critical moment," said Dr. Andrew Weaver, a lead author of
the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize winning IPCC report.

"It looks like the unprecedented desire to vote for the environment
could result in a terrible three way split of environmental voters in
key ridings. Elizabeth May and her appeal have an extraordinary
opportunity to make the change the Green movement wants to see in our
government. Ms. May and the Greens alone can help make the difference
between the Harper majority that the climate scientists fear and a
Liberal minority under which great progress can be made to fight
climate change."

Doctors Weaver, Peltier and Stone were part of the group of 124
prominent climate scientists who called for strategic voting to defeat
the Conservative government.

VoteForEnvironment.ca uses the most recent polling and the 2006
election results at the riding level to mathematically estimate
results in each riding. The tool uses the same method pollsters use to
make seat projections. It is available so citizens can decode what the
various polls mean in their voting choice and if their vote could help
make the difference to stop a Conservative victory in their riding.

"Look at Oakville," said Dr. William Peltier from the University of Toronto.

"The Conservative in Oakville is set to win by about 1200 votes. In
that riding May and the Green party will probably draw well over 7000
votes. If even a portion of those Greens act it will make the
difference. There are dozens of ridings like Oakville. It looks today
like Conservatives will squeak out a win over NDP and Liberal
candidates in key ridings where the Greens under May are so strong
that, if they used their votes to make change, it would happen."

"Right now if May were to act to lead the growing Green force she has
inspired, she could change the result of this election," said Dr. John
Stone from Carleton University.

"I think changing the government by acting in a narrow band of ridings
is more important to environmental voters than the $1.83 parties get
per vote. May should make clear that she believes the government needs
to change and the election is in the hands of green voters in key
ridings."

Visit VoteForEnvironment.ca to download a spreadsheet of all the
ridings where the Green vote can make the difference.

Media Contacts:
Dr. William Peltier, 647-405-0829
Dr. John Stone, 613-862-3393
Dr. Andrew Weaver, 250-888-7591

Check out this amazing new video from our great friends at anyonebutharper.ca and avaaz.ca.

A quick note to let you know we have updated our picks on the site. We've done our best to bring everything in line with the best polling data available. We're still arguing about a few ridings, but for the most part we're done for now. We will likely update again on Friday in case of movement.

We appreciate all your pick-related e-mails. it is very valuable information that we do take into consideration. We can't respond to everyone, but we're reading all your e-mail messages.

Thanks for all your great feedback and support. We are overwhelmed with your response.