It seems all pundits and election prediction sites agree that Jack Harris will win

This seat is definitely going NDP. It has nothing to do with polling because it is not the party who will win this riding it is Jack Harris. http://electionprediction.org/2007_fed/p_10nl.html here is a link to election prediction projects prediction. And here is the one for Democratic Space http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/atlantic-canada/ Both like Most people are in agreement in having already called it for the NDP. It isn't even expected to be close. There are many who think Harris is going to win with a majority.