I think these numbers are very inaccurate for this riding

They are based upon 2006 when the liberals ran Marc Garneau - a 'star' candidate - at least someone with name recognition and now the Liberal candidate does not have that same level of name recognition at all and, frankly, in speaking in english only the conservative Michael Fortier speaks well and with composure. I think this is a much more 'iffy' riding than the modified 2006 numbers show. Not all bloc voters are solid and Meili Faille, the Bloc incumbent, has, laudably, spent alot of time on immigration and human rights issues, frankly not something that reasonates for most 'ordinary canadians/quebecers/quebecois' that Harper is now connecting with!

Harper is, weirdly, selling very well in rural and semi rural regions like this - they like the plain speaking leader he is - and that professorial guy either speaks french too well or english too bad....astonishing how little this is about the ideas.....

anyway if Fortier can amass a majority of federalist vote and pickup some soft bloc that might be enough....